Exploring the nexus between traffic safety and economic sustainability in Saudi Arabia

Abstract This study examines the dynamic relationship between traffic safety and economic sustainability in Saudi Arabia, a country undergoing rapid structural transformation under its Vision 2030 agenda. Using time-series data from 1990 to 2023, the research applies Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) frameworks to examine the short- and long-run effects of foreign direct investment (FDI), GDP per capita, road infrastructure quality, and rule of law on traffic fatality rates. Empirical findings reveal that while macroeconomic variables, such as FDI and GDP, exhibit a limited direct influence on traffic safety, institutional governance and infrastructure quality significantly shape long-term outcomes. Notably, road quality, though essential for development, displays a paradoxical link with increased fatality rates, underscoring the need for integrated policy responses. The rule of law consistently emerges as a critical determinant, reinforcing the role of regulatory effectiveness and legal accountability. This research advances the conceptualization of a “safety-economy nexus” and offers evidence-based insights for aligning public safety priorities with economic development goals. It concludes with policy recommendations emphasizing enforcement, smart mobility, and cross-sectoral coordination, while also identifying future research pathways involving demographic, behavioral, and technological dimensions.